New TLD Revenue Projections

New TLD Revenue Projections need to properly reflect domain volumes.

First year considerations:

• Sunrise
• Landrush
• Market penetration

Basic right.  So in the first year you could say ‘We’re going to have 100 people buying our .TBA”.

So you might think 100 = 100 multiplied by your sales price.  Seems straight-forward but there is a catch.

• Do you offer multiple year purchases i.e. can I purchase a domain for five-year?
• Do you offer a discount for multiple years?

So if you have 100 registrations and 10% are multiple years with a discount your sales revenue changes.

You now have:

• 1 year registrations – 90 x price
• 2 year registrations – (% of 2 year registrations) x price – discount for each year(s)
• etc.

That’s year one for new TLD revenue projections but now, lets move to year two.

Year Two

Now for year two on wards, your volume needs to be a part of your new registrants plus your renewals.   So if you have 200 new registrants in year 2, you don’t simply have a total of 300 sales.  You have:

• 200  for new registrants in year 2 plus
• 100 x % of people who renew i.e. maybe only 40% of year 1 new domain registers want to renew.

Of course, you than have to calculate the impact on the year 2 renewals through your multiple year sales and discounts.

Bottom line, don’t forget the impact on your revenues from those domain renewals and the impact of discounts.